I can’t say I have a lot of feedback from last week. Despite two of my three best bets not coming through, my home underdogs and short home favorites came through pretty well last week. However, my gun-to-my-head picks again finished better than my bets (4-1 vs. 6-5, respectively).
Some 2019 betting trends for you, from BetLabs:
Dogs: 111-90-6 ATS
Road teams: 112-84-6 ATS
Against public: 103-93-6 ATS
Week 14 record: 6-5
Season Record: 78-61-1
Week 15 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture. Some of these picks will not be locked in until Sunday, as lines do often change/hint at future change in the middle of the week.
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
I jumped on this line early, as the line has since jumped up to 3 (I still like the Titans in that spot by the way). Even now, the Titans have attracted 61% of the money despite (in my opinion) surprising public action on Houston. You would think at this point people would be jumping off Houston after their no-show last week in against Denver.
Anything over three, I stay away. But as someone who jumped on this game immediately after Sunday dinner with the family, I feel great about getting the red-hot Titans as short home favorites, even against a tough divisional opponent.
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4)
I placed the largest bet of my life on the Bears winning fewer than 9.5 wins this season. This is getting a tad too close for comfort, but I’m betting on the Packers to cover at home as the superior team that would likely have been favored by six or more if not for the results of the last two weeks.
The Bears are hot, and pushing for the playoff spot. But despite some heavy public action in favor of the Bears, the money is still on the side of the Pack (63% of the money despite only receiving 48% of the bets).
Give me Aaron Rodgers as the short home favorite against the a team I desperately need to lose one out of their last three games for the sake of my financial well being.
- Atlanta Falcons (+11.5) at San Francisco 49ers
This is an inflated line after San Francisco’s monumental win last week in New Orleans. The Falcons, while disappointing in the grand scheme of things, have turned things around over the second half of the season. I do not like this spot for San Francisco either, as they have dealt with two of the toughest games on their schedule and have lost some starters along the way.
Heading into back-to-back division games, I see this as an ideal let-down spot for the 49ers.
- Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (+1)
The opening line for this game had Dallas favored by four points. Following an impressive win from Los Angeles and a not-so-impressive loss from Dallas last week, the line shifted a full five points in the wrong direction.
Dallas as an underdog is a bitch of a stretch in this spot. Give me the Cowboys, who are getting 3.5 points of value, against a Rams team that while desperately clinging onto playoff contention, has proven time and time again to be inherently flawed.
- New York Jets (+16.5) at Baltimore Ravens & Denver Broncos (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs
Similar philosophy here: betting big numbers against two very public-heavy teams with beat up quarterbacks who just want to get out of these games alive. Denver is a little more viable than New York, hence the 6.5-point difference between the two numbers, but I like both big dogs in their respective spots.
- Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
With both teams fighting for their playoff lives in what is likely to be the ugliest Sunday night game in recent memory, I like the short home favorite as long as Mason Rudolph doesn’t see the field.
Gun-to-my-head picks: 42-24-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+6)
New England Patriots (-9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+4.5)
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Oakland Raiders
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-9)