Things are unbalanced when my gun-to-my-head picks have a significantly better percentage than my actual season record. Not great, guys.
Does that mean I’m betting too many games (including a season high 12 last week) or does it mean I’m not betting enough? It stands to reason that the former is the most likely answer to my problems, but that’s no fun. We march forward, as we’re still looking at a very nice profit just from my picks on Pick-up Lines alone and if you know me at all, you know these aren’t the only games I’m betting on. If you want to see ALL of my bets, follow me via the Action Network app. You may or may not poop yourself when you see what else I’ve been doing this season.
But that’s not what we care about at Pick-up lines. We care about my NFL picks ATS. I’m shitting the bed right now on that front and looking to bounce back in a big way by returning to my principles:
- Home underdogs
- Short home favorites
- Big numbers
Read ‘em and weep.
Week 13 record: 6-6
Season Record: 72-57-1
Week 14 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture. Some of these picks will not be locked in until Sunday, as lines do often change/hint at future change in the middle of the week.
- San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
This is the ideal spot to bet the Saints. Coming off four consecutive ho-hum performances against divisional opponents, the Saints are finally off the public scent. The almighty 49ers, however, looked impressive (and covered!) last week in Baltimore. But that cover did not come without a heavy price. Half their secondary has been limited at best in practice this week, and they’re still relatively beat-up on the other side of the ball.
I like the Saints as VERY short home favorites. Despite a heavier ticket count on San Francisco, we are seeing some reverse line movement, with the heavier price being on the Saints number. I expect this line to reach three by game-time.
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
I jumped on this game early, but I still like the Falcons at -3. The Panthers are a mess and coming off another embarrassing loss to the Redskins last Sunday. This line is likely to continue to climb, as the Falcons are taking on 86% of the money despite only catching 64% of the tickets. Really the only Panthers bettors are those are stuck on the Falcons from October.
- Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)
The Patriots are down to +500 to win the Super Bowl. That’s about all you need to know heading into this game.
You will not have a better opportunity to bet on the New England Patriots at home than this week. Everyone and their mother continues to be down on Touchdown Tommy, and while some of the criticism is warranted, this line is reflecting public perception a lot more than the actual spot. I would love for this line to dump below three prior to kick-off, but this is a nice get-right spot for New England coming off a loss in Houston.
There is nothing wrong with losing at Houston and at Baltimore, folks. The sky is not falling. Their defense is still awesome. Bet the Pats.
- Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
I jumped on this game early as well, and again, similar to the Falcons spot, I would take the Bucs at -3. Any higher and you’re dealing with “Do I really trust Famous Jameis?” territory, and that is a dangerous game to play. I fully expect him to throw for 325 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions while completely ignoring Mike Evans and winning by a field goal. Can’t wait.
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
This line has dropped all the way down to pick ‘em, with the sharp bettors hammering the Rams in the early portion of the first week of December. I should probably warn you, I do not think I’ve been on the right side for a single Seahawks game this season. That being said, the Rams are the right side here. The Seahawks won a weird game at home against LA in which they were the beneficiaries of a missed field goal. The Rams, as bad as they have been, are still very much in the hunt for a wild card spot.
- Denver Broncos (+9.5) at Houston Texans
I fully expect the Broncos to let me down here, as I don’t think this number is getting to 10, but I had to bet an inflated number following a nice win for the Texans. Until I see Houston resemble any sort of the consistency, I will bet against them following big wins. Following covers against opponents .500 or better, the Texans are 0-4 ATS. Let’s hope it continues.
- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)
I am buying low on the Jets this week as home favorites against the public’s favorite underdog. The Dolphins have been fun and I love Ryan Fitzpatrick as much as the next guy, but they are getting a little too much respect for trying harder than everyone thought they would the last few weeks. The Jets are coming off a loss against the previously defeated Cincinnati Bengals, but I expect a bounce-back against a divisional opponent they already last to earlier this season.
- Detroit Lions (+14) at Minnesota Vikings
Betting the number here, as 14 is simply too much for the Vikings to be laying. If you recall, they were 10-point favorites at home against Brandon Allen and were down 20-0 before everyone finished their breakfast. Lions are coming off a long week, and the Vikings played Monday night in Seattle. This could be a letdown spot for Kirk the jerk.
- Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+3)
Oakland (5-1 at home this season) are catching 55% of the money despite only 36% of the bets being placed on them. The sharps love the Raiders in this spot, as this line is inflated due to some dominant performances by the Titans in recent weeks. As much as I love Ryan Tannehill, the Raiders should be favored in this spot.
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+6)
This line looks too big, smells too big and in my opinion, is too big. The Ravens are just about as beat up as San Francisco after that slugfest last week, and the Bills are still looking for respect after dismantling the Cowboys on national TV. I like this game at 5.5 as well.
Gun-to-my-head picks: 38-23-1
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3)
Washington Redskins (+13) at Green Bay Packers
Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) at Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)