Home teams rebounded in a big way in Week 9, finishing 12-1 ATS, per the lines posted on Sunday. As you can imagine, this was a huge day for Pick-up Lines, as the regression for road teams finally came through in a big way.
This week, we’re looking at a lot of short favorites, as underdogs are still dominating this late in the season (76-58-2 ATS). I expect regression on this front as well, particularly this week.
Week 9 record: 9-2
Season Record: 55-38-1
Week 10 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture. Some of these picks will not be locked in until Sunday, as lines do often change/hint at future change in the middle of the week.
- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Vegas has been a little high on San Fran the last three weeks, and it’s shown with their ATS record normalizing a bit (1-2 last three). However, I think that has more to do with the spots they were in (going up against bad teams on the road favored by an enormous amount of points) as opposed to their own performance.
Now, Vegas has suddenly gone the other way, knowing that the betting public is going to be confused as to why Russell Wilson is catching six in a divisional game (Seahawks are grabbing 65% of the bets, to date).
That being said, the difference between the two defenses in this game is too great to ignore, with the 49ers giving up half as many points as Seattle this season (12.8 ppg to 25.6 ppg, respectively) with neither team having an edge in strength of schedule. All numbers point to a 7.5 point spread for San Francisco, but we’re getting them at six for silly reasons.
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)
If the Packers didn’t lay an egg last week in Los Angeles, a side this blog boy was on BT Dubs, this line would be significantly higher. The Packers need this win in the worst way heading into their bye week before their match-up with the almighty 49ers.
Give me Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau against a rookie quarterback coming off a nice home every day of the damn week. The Packers should be laying seven this week (at least).
- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
This newfound trust in Matthew Stafford has me salivating.
Despite losing in Oakland in last week (in an unlucky turn of events, I’ll admit) the Bears are getting absolutely no love at home coming off four consecutive sad losses. Bears fans are depressed, with “2017 NFL draft results” listed number one in their Google search history since September.
Give me the Bears -2.5, with their limp-dick offense at home, in a spot against this overvalued Lions team. The sharps are on this one, with the Bears catching 35% of the bets but 51% of the money. Trust Matthew Stafford at your own peril.
- Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Yes! Give me all of the sad favorites this week!
This line likely makes a lot of readers wonder “How are the Browns ever favored? They’re sad and their quarterback is a pedo.”
The value is on the short home favorite against a Bills team that really is one of the more fraudulent groups in recent memory (25th in DVOA despite their 6-2 record). The Browns have had the third toughest schedule to-date and have been kicked around like the dogs they are in every spot imaginable, and their turnover margin is among the league’s worst (-8 for the season, 28th overall). But the Bills aren’t great with turnovers either (-1, 18th overall) and are catching a lot of public attention (74% of the bets through Thursday). Bet the short home favorite and hope the Browns run Nick Chubb into the ground.
- Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
I love the Cowboys in this spot. As I’ve been preaching for much of the season, the Vikings are not the same group on the road as they are at home. Since 2014, the Vikings are 0-13-1 on the road outdoors against teams that are above .500. I hope the Cowboys decide to open the roof on Sunday.
- Miami Dolphins (+11.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is a big let-down spot for Miami, but the number was just too high. It’s dropped to 10.5 as of Thursday, but with Jacoby Brissett’s status in a flux, the upstart Dolphins are the right side. And even if Brissett trudges onto the field, busted knee and all, there’s nothing to suggest that the Colts should be favored by double-digits against anyone.
The main concern for Dolphins backers: their top two offensive threats (I’m not going to bother mentioning their names because you have no idea who I’m talking about anyway) are both done for the season, one lost to injury and the other to drugs. Will Miami be able to score enough points/limit their turnovers enough to cover 11.5 points on the road?
I expect the Colts to run the *damn* ball into the ground this week, but I like Miami here.
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+10)
If I ever re-name this blog, it’s probably going to be “Hold your nose and bet the Bengals.”
You seriously thought that just because the Bengals benched my beloved Andy Dalton that I would stop betting the Bengals? Please. This is America.
This is a big let-down spot for Baltimore, coming off the biggest win of the season (on National TV!) and heading into match-ups with Houston, Los Angeles and San Francisco in consecutive weeks. They don’t care about the (now healthy) Bengals and just want to make Lamar Jackson doesn’t turn into mush.
Take the points there. Mark Ingram will get a healthy dose in this one, but the Ravens aren’t covering in the Jungle.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
I bet on this game early in the week, hoping and praying that Mahomes would heroically waltz onto the field and crush Ryan Tannehill.
No ruling has been made on Mahomes yet, but the line has jumped to 5.5. If it continues to rise, say to 7, I might be forced to hedge. But I like the Chiefs in this spot. They have a big Monday night game next week against Los Angeles heading into their much-needed Week 12 bye, but KC needs this game in order to keep pace in the AFC, with both Houston and Baltimore looking stellar. I like the short road favorite despite the huge betting numbers suggesting that the Titans are the right side in this one.
Gun-to-my-head picks: 24-17-1
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+1)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13)
New York Giants at New York Jets (+2.5)
Arizona Cardinals (+5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)