We got crushed again last week, with a late, multi-unit bet on the New England Patriots for my lungs saving an otherwise lost cause. Road teams continue to work my wallet like a speedbag, going 9-4-1 last week for an overall record of 64-38-2 ATS (61.5%) this season.
Now, ironically, the numbers favor many road teams this week. The only way I don’t bounce back is if that regression finally comes through and smacks me right in the mouth.
Week 7 record: 3-6
Season Record: 38-33-1
Week 8 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture. Some of these picks will not be locked in until Sunday, as lines do often change/hint at future change in the middle of the week.
- Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
This line jumped from 7.5 to 10.5 as of Thursday morning in this match-up of the two most profitable teams ATS so far in 2019, per BetLabs. This had a lot more to do with early sharp money than the possibility of Drew Brees coming back, but I caught right as the line was about jump to 10. As the Saints have won big games on the road (both of which I was on the wrong side), I fully expect them to take care of business at home against a Cardinals team coming off back-to-back road wins against inferior opponents.
Full disclosure, I’m actually nervous about Drew Brees coming back this week. I’d much prefer to see Teddy Two-Gloves taking snaps on Sunday.
- Philadelphia Eagles (+2) at Buffalo Bills
I’m throwing last week out.
The Iggles were trounced in Dallas in a truly demoralizing effort. It’s hard to believe that anyone could shit the bed that hard on national TV in a division game, but here we are.
This line is probably -2.5 in other direction if we’re looking at this a week ago, leaving us with nearly five points in value. I expect a big bounce back victory for the Eagles this week.
If I’m being honest, though, this has more to do with Fletcher Cox. If he can handle this (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27910323/eagles-fletcher-cox-grabbed-shotgun-thwart-break-in), he can stop Josh Allen.
- Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I love this spot for Carolina.
San Francisco was clearly looking ahead to this game last week, so the bye week really doesn’t do too much for me. Carolina, meanwhile, has won four consecutive games and has a defense that has been playing essentially on-par with the 49ers of late. Carolina is the toughest opponent San Francisco has faced this season, and I think we’re getting two points of value. Running down the depth charts, there aren’t many spots in this game where San Francisco has the edge, aside from their edge…..rushers.
This game will come down to field position and turnovers, and Carolina has been better than San Francisco in both areas thus far. If Carolina can keep Kyle Allen upright, the 49ers might be in danger of losing their game.
- Oakland Raiders (+7) at Houston Texans
Throwing. Last. Week. Out.
The Raiders were arguably my most infuriating loss last week. While I fully expected the Packers to win against Derek Carr and co., the Raiders blew two chances to score at the one-yard line (somehow) and that completely changed the outcome of the game from a spread perspective. Houston is coming off a huge division loss, but with how up and down the Texans have been, I think they are laying too many points against a competitive Oakland team.
- Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Despite a heavy ticket count on the Colts, the line is moving in the opposite direction. This indicates heavy sharp action on Denver as the road underdog.
The Colts are riding high after a nice home win against Houston, and the last time they were in this spot, with a bigger road game looming, they got smoked at home against Oakland. I perfectly understand the thinking behind the Denver backers, but the Colts dipping below six is a travesty. I’m not locking a full unit on this game until this line dips further, but I have zero faith in the Broncos at this point.
- New York Giants (+7.5) atDetroit Lions
From a money percentage stand-point, this is the most lopsided game on the board. Even as it now sits at 7, the Giants have value coming off two consecutive losses. The Public favors the Lions heavily (despite their infuriating loss last week) as the hype has cooled on Danny Dimes.
I’ll take the Giants to keep it within a score. The Lions have been consistently inconsistent since I was born, so that likely means they’ll drop 35 this week, but I’m hoping they’ll continue to fall off a cliff so I can bet on them next week as huge underdogs in Oakland.
- Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs handled their adversity last week and beat Denver senseless last Thursday night. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for Aaron Rodgers and are four-point home dawgs with a 5-2 record. That all SCREAMS that we should bet the Chiefs.
And that’s exactly why this line is as low as it is. I don’t see Davante Adams coming back this week, but Green Bay is not a great match-up for Kansas City. I was hoping Mahomes would play in this game and I’d bet on the Packers as the underdog, but I’ll take anything under six in this one.
- New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
The Jaguars survived Andy Dalton on the road last week while Sam Darnold saw ghosts in Foxborough. I don’t see Darnold playing much better against this Jacksonville team on the road.
Jacksonville, after trading away arguably their best player last week for a haul and a half, is far from out of it in a competitive AFC South. I think they take care of business at home heading into three consecutive division games.
- Cleveland Browns (+13) at New England Patriots
Give me the Baker Mayfield’s
I love the Browns in this spot. Simply put, it’s too many points. This line should be 10, and we’re looking at a) a Browns team coming off a bye in desperate need of a win and b) a Patriots team on a short week who plays in Baltimore next week. The Patriots are going to look ahead here and rely on their defense. I don’t expect Tommy to have a good game this week and the Browns are going to keep this one close.
- Miami Dolphins (+14.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Redskins (+17) at Minnesota Vikings
Last time we saw Mason Rudolph he was non compos mentis in the middle of the field and I still have zero faith in Kirk the Jerk despite his incredible run the last three weeks. Hold your nose with big numbers.
Now, please excuse me while I walk into oncoming traffic.
Gun-to-my-head picks: 19-15-1
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons*
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-13)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
*Off the board
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