Last week was another winning week (praisethe gambling gods), with a late bet on the Cleveland Browns soiling my record down to 5-4 in what was a profitable week by the slightest of margins. Underdogs and road teams continue to crush it, but I’m banking on regression again this week.
I wrote a ton of words below, so don’t give me shit for the short intro. Read ‘em and weep.
Week 5 record: 5-4
Season Record: 31-21-1
Week 6 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture.
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
I’ve been waiting ever so patiently to bet on Gardner Minshew since his Week 3 cover as a two-point home dawg against the Titans. The last two weeks, I’ve loved New Orleans and hated Jacksonville in their respective spots (Saints at home and Jacksonville on the road). I’m 3-0 betting these teams the last two weeks, and I love the Jaguars in this spot.
The Jaguars, despite getting only 25% of the bets, are getting 62% of the money. The sharps are all over Jacksonville as the short home favorite.
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Everyone loves the Eagles here, and I’m not entirely sure why. Minnesota is a different animal at home. I have a feeling this line is adjusted towards Philadelphia due to 1) their terrific showing in Green Bay two weeks ago on National TV and 2) Minnesota’s shit show in Chicago, also two weeks ago and also on national TV.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Oh yeah. Big adjustment here.
Two weeks ago, this line is likely 6 or 7 and I’m jumping on the 49ers. Now? Everyone hates Jared Goff and loves Nick Bosa.
Make no mistake about it, the 49ers are impressive. But the Rams didn’t just lose their mojo after a couple tough losses against Tampa Bay and Seattle. This is gut-check time for Los Angeles. We’re going to find out real quick if they’re making the playoffs. I’m betting they show up and take care of business at home as the super short favorite.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
This line keeps dropping and I keep smiling. The Chiefs went from juggernaut to “are we sure they’re as good as New England?” in three weeks. After their loss to Indianapolis last week, Kansas City isn’t catching the same amount of respect that we’re used to.
Houston, meanwhile, is two weeks removed from shitting the bed at home against Carolina and one week removed from dropping 50+ on a moribund Atlanta team.
Give me the Chiefs. This line should be 7. Injury report be damned.
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
I made a late bet on a Cleveland +5.5 Monday night, hoping they would play the game close and not make me sad (as you saw in last week’s blog, I favored San Fran at -3.5).
They got roflstomped and made me sad. For the first time I lost a bet on the Browns this year (4-0 on Browns bets otherwise). So why am I betting on them this week?
The Browns, as confusing and sad as they are, should not be underdogs here. The Seahawks have been impressive thus far, but the Browns have shown the ability to compete and the Seahawks don’t (typically) cover this spot off a big division win at home.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
As shown last week with Chicago, defenses don’t travel well across the pond. The Buccaneers, public darlings last week against New Orleans, are catching points on a neutral field against a team they already whooped this season in Carolina.
I love this spot for Tampa. I don’t really think the Panthers should be favored here, especially given Tampa’s on-again-off-again style and a rookie quarterback starting in what can only categorized as a weird game. Still, the underdog has value in London. Only 37% of the tickets are on Tampa but over 50% of the money is on the same. Take the Bucs.
Detroit Lions (+6) at Green Bay Packers
I saw this line early Monday morning while I was drinking some fresh black coffee at work.
I almost spit it right back out.
Anticipating a large swing in the number after Green Bay’s impressive performance last week in Dallas, I jumped on Detroit catching 6 on the road against a quality yet somewhat disturbing Green Bay team. This line prior to the victory in Dallas is likely around Green Bay -3.5. As I’m writing this, Detroit is still only a four-point dog, coming off a bye. Take Detroit. Pray that Matthew Stafford doesn’t kill you. Bet on the number, not the teams.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2)
Short home favorites, even if they’re bad.
These are two very similar football teams, but with Denver being 1-4, we’re getting one point of value. Only 44% of the tickets are on Denver, but 72% of the money is on the same. Follow the money. The public doesn’t want to bet on Joe Flacco, but I do!
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at New York Jets
Love the Cowboys here. Anything more than a touchdown, I’m staying away. But Dallas, after two uber disappointing losses on National television, has to be coming into this game upset and ready to eat a vastly inferior team alive. If they don’t, I think Jason Garrett needs to finally go.
There has been A LOT of money dropped on New York thus far, hence the line dropping from 9 to 7, but 7 is a very good number for Dallas bettors.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Home dogs! Even if they’re bad.
Nope. Give me the Falcons.
This might be the only time I bet Atlanta all season. With Seattle, Los Angeles New Orleans and Carolina all coming up on the schedule, Atlanta has to win this game. I like Atlanta as the very short road favorite against a team that was lucky to win last week.
Cincinnati Bengals (+12) at Baltimore Ravens
This number opened at 8.5 and shot up to 11.5 while I was eating dinner on Sunday.
The Bungals have hurt my feelings the last two weeks. I keep trusting them and Andy Dalton keeps missing Tyler Eifert, all 6’6”, 251 lbs. of him, in the end zone and thereby shaving points.
But good god. Twelve points in a division game?
Baltimore, meanwhile, is a mediocre 2-2-1 ATS thus far….Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS with two covers on the road against Seattle and Buffalo, two teams who have outplayed Baltimore to-date. I’ll take the Bungals again and prepare to be sad.
Gun-to-my-head picks: 13-11-1
New York Giantsat New England Patriots (-17)
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) at Los Angeles Chargers
— Josh North
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