Pick-up Lines: Week 3

Last week got off to a putrid start, with Carolina laying an egg against Tampa Bay and Miami not showing up at home against a division rival. If not for three late bets on Denver +2.5, Detroit +2.5 and Jacksonville +8.5 (see twitter feed, @JCNorth_), I would have been in deep doo-doo. As it stands, I’m up through two weeks, hoping to start getting hot after a peculiar start to the season. 

Some Notes:

Since 2003, teams that start 0-2 ATS have gone 67-51 ATS in Week 3.

Eli Manning was 5-0 all-time ATS vs. Touchdown Tommy (RIP).

Underdogs 18-13-1 ATS.

Road Teams (this is the weird part) 21-10-1 ATS.

Week 2 record: 7-5

Season Record: 14-9-1

Week 3 Picks

As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+4.5)

The Monday Night game this week is a snooze fest. I’m not watching this nonsense, but I love this line. Washington is clearly more competitive than the public believes, and many appear to still believe in the Bears despite some fishy stuff from zebras last week preventing them from starting 0‑2.

Sep 15, 2019; Denver, CO, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10) attempts a pass under pressure from Denver Broncos linebacker Bradley Chubb (55) as offensive tackle Charles Leno Jr. (72) defends in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

This line should be closer to 1 or 1.5 for Chicago. I love the home dog here.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

Is Cam Newton healthy? Does it matter?

Give me the home dog who went into Baltimore last week and was a play away from the biggest upset of the season.

Detroit Lions (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles

The sharps are all over the Lions this week. The Eagles, Super Bowl Champions two years ago, are getting a little too much respect after a loss last week in Atlanta and barely escaping with a win Week 1 against Washington. This number is too high, and should be closer to 4.

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns

This is interesting to me. I don’t ordinarily bet road favorites, but the Rams have shown the ability to compete on the road and the Browns have shown the ability to shit the bed at home in vintage Browns fashion. I’ll be on the Rams as the short road favorite in a game where I think the Browns are getting too much respect against the defending NFC Champions.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Sharp guys and the public are on the Falcons in this one……

Give me the short home favorite. Every. Time.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

I caught this line early. The public believes that Baltimore is on par with the Chiefs, despite merely beating some low-level teams in first two weeks. Kansas City is the better team and the line should be 7. Many are hoping to see if Baltimore is the contender they appear to be after two weeks, but Arizona almost beat them on the road with a rookie quarterback. Give me the proven super bowl contenders at home by a touchdown.

New York Jets (+23) at New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins (+21.5) at Dallas Cowboys

DON’T. CARE.

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-8)

After watching me place bets on underdogs based on the number, I’m betting on the Vikings as a relatively large home favorite. I thought this number was too low when I saw it open at 7.5, and it is now at 9 as of Wednesday evening. At this rate, 10 is very likely.

I believe that 10 is where this number should be, given the performance of both teams thus far. I would be impressed if Oakland was able to keep this as a one-possession game. Minnesota is a different team at home.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)

Yeah sure. Why not?

Gun-to-my-head picks: 7-1

Denver Broncos (+8) at Green Bay Packers

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6)

New York Giantsat Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

New Orleans Saints (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Houston Texans (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers



— Josh North

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