I think by all accounts, last week was one of the more bonkers Week 1’s in recent memory. Starting with the unity of a genuine sociopath (and possibly abuser and rapist) with the NFL’s evil empire, and ending with a John Gruden victory on national television, last week left plenty of room for public overreaction. I love Week 2 just for that reason.
Some early Week 1 gambling nuggets, per Bet Labs:
Road Teams ATS: 10-5-1
Underdogs ATS (!!!): 9-6-1
Teams getting less than 50% of the action ATS: 9-6-1
Despite the craziness and with the exception of the early road team dominance, a lot of Week 1 was in-line with typical Week 1 numbers. Teams come in with hype, disappoint and then in Week 2 the lines reflect the disappointment and reactions of the betting public. As always, we at The BarnBurner will look capitalize on the nonsense.
Week 2 Picks
Season Record: 7-4-1
As always, my picks will be listed most to least confident. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread. My gun-to-my-head picks show the games I did not bet on (hence the poopy record above) but the pick I would make if there was a…..you get the picture.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+19)
This is a very simple: Since 2003, double-digit road favorites are 34-47 (42%) ATS, per Bet Labs. Touchdown Tommy is 7-8 ATS in that same spot, including 1-3 against our Miami heroes. I’m betting the number, not the team. I may or may not be banking on Jason Taylor coming out of retirement and wrecking Tommy’s dreams. At the very least, I hope he stands on the sidelines and makes funny faces at him.
Hold your nose. Bet the team that is already being compared to the Alabama Crimson Tide (full disclosure: I REALLY hate that conversation).
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (+2.5)
I do not understand this line. With public perception skewing this over five points in the wrong direction, I will gladly bet on the home dog against a team that shouldn’t be road favorites against anyone. And by anyone, I mean anyone. The Giants are bad, folks. I bet Giants money line (+115).
Let me be clear: I love Josh Allen. Not because he runs fast or throws footballs all over the place, but because he is the only quarterback I can remember who can turn the ball over four times and have articles written about his poise and leadership afterwards. It’s absolutely marvelous and I hope he continues to win poopy games so that I hear more about his poise. Humor me and Google “Josh Allen poise.” It’s a fun ride.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles rams (-2.5)
There’s a lot of “the Saints are out for blood” flying around in the airwaves right now, which is keeping this line low. Give me the short home favorite against the short-week Saints all day.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
This line should be significantly higher, but it is not due to Pittsburgh getting murder-stomped by the New England Patriots on national television on Sunday night. I still like Pittsburgh, and I don’t foresee them starting the year 0-2. If any of you happened to watch Seattle last week for any other reason than keeping your Survivor pool hopes alive, you would have noticed bad offensive line play with an even worse secondary. Give me the Steelers big in this one.
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2)
I saw this line late Sunday night and jumped on it, thinking the line would move in the other direction. The line is now at Bengals -1.5, which I still happen to like.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Tennessee Titans
The Colts are better and should be treated with a little more respect than this line suggests. The Titans, coming off an absolute shellacking of the Cleveland Browns in the Dawg Pound last week, are…..fine. That’s it. They’re a fine football team with mediocre (and that’s putting it lightly) quarterback. I believe the Colts to be better and will gladly take the three points. Last week was more about the Browns browning it up than the Titans being playing well on the road.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at New York Jets
Speaking of the Browns…
Oh my, their offensive line is atrocious. I was not shocked at all by Sunday. That being said, I do not see them losing to this Jets team who, despite creating four turnovers against the Buffalo Bills at home, scored only 16 points (side note: could you imagine taking Sam Darnold over Josh Allen and his poise?).
I expect the Browns to bounce back on the road and hopefully have less than 18 penalties for 182 yards.
Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Hold your nose. Bet the big number. It will cover often. Do it or you are a square.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
The Buccaneers made me sad last week. I do like the Panthers at home (even missing the best of the number when it opened at 5), but I’m largely making this bet out of spite. I don’t necessarily recommend this one, but I publish my picks, so here we are.
Gun-to-my-head picks: 4-0
Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Washington Redskins
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7)
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2)
— Josh North