Pick-up Lines: Week 15

Weekly NFL Picks Against the Spread

By: Josh North

Normally, my main talking points are as follows:

  1. Bet home dawgs
  2. Bet short home favorites
  3. Bet huge + numbers
  4. Pray/drink

This week, however, I LOVE many road teams getting a ton of points in spots where they simply should not be allowed to have that many points at the start of their respective games. I’m riding high after these last two weeks (13-4) and hoping to close out the year strong ahead of the postseason.

Week 15 Picks

As always, my picks will be listed from most to least confident. However, I must note that I won’t be finalizing most of the picks on my end until Sunday morning (unless I really feel good about the number I’m seeing, which does happen from time to time). For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread.

Season Record: 66-38-2

Season Point Differential: +263.5

Last Week: 6-3

  1.  New England Patriots (-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Patriots are getting no respect (!) for this game. This line should be 3, with Pittsburgh struggling these past few weeks and New England appearing stable by comparison- despite losing at Miami last week on a miracle.

Tom Brady is 10-2 against the Steelers all time (including playoffs) and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue simply because they lost at Miami (which also happens a lot, as I noted last week. I’m expecting Touchdown Tommy to channel his inner Rodney Dangerfield in this one.

2.  Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are beat up, and that usually doesn’t bode well for a team on a short week. While the home team has dominated Thursday night matchups (as they often do), I like getting 3.5 points in a game that could go either way. It just makes sense to bet the Chargers this week, despite their abysmal record against Kansas City over the past few years, as I noted in my Week 1 column.

3.  Miami Dolphins (+8.5) at Minnesota Vikings

I…..don’t follow Vegas on this one. Well over half of the action has been on Miami, both public and sharp, since this line opened at 9.5. I nabbed it at 8.5, but it has already sunk to 7. I still believe 7 is too high, so if you’re looking at this after 12/13, bet the Dolphins.

The Vikings aren’t a bad team by any means, but this number is simply too high and I’m not sure Minnesota’s homefield is anything close to enough to justify Kirk the Jerk laying more than a touchdown against anyone. This number should be 6.5, and I’m being generous. I’m not sure why this line is inflated, other than Vegas anticipating public love for the Purple People Eaters.

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4.  Cleveland Browns (+3.5)at Denver Broncos

I believe the Browns are the better team and Denver should be a shorter home favorite (2.5 seems like the right number here). Since they’ve been largely on the outside looking in, Denver’s injury bug has not covered been covered extensively when talking about the AFC playoff picture. They’re probably a tad too beat up in the secondary, offensive line and the wide receiver position to really post a threat in the conference anymore, despite what appears to be an easy last three weeks. The Browns could win this game and I like getting the 3.5 points, even on the road.

5.  Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5)

Simply put, until the Packers show me any fight against competent competition, I will continue to bet against them. This line should be 6.5. I’m getting some value for the better team at this point in the season.

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6.  Dallas Cowboys (+3)at Indianapolis Colts

I get that the Colts just came off a big win at Houston last week, but 3 whole points against a hot Dallas team is just too high. The Cowboys have the edge at just about every position aside from quarterback, even though that gap is sizable.

7.  Seattle Seahawks (-4) at San Francisco 49ers

The Denver Broncos, a vastly inferior team to Seattle, was favored by 4.5 last week and lost in what felt like a fluky contest. The Seahawks, coming off a short week, should be laying a few more points against a putrid San Francisco team. I don’t expect the veteran Seahawks to let up against the 49ers, as they try to lock-up the five seed.

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8.  Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-9)

This game doesn’t look like that great of a mismatch to some, but to me this is a big number that should be even higher (I would say 10.5) given the difference between the two teams and LA’s homefield advantage. Philadelphia’s season is over, and I don’t see them competing in this one. Then again, I said that about Bengals-Chargers last week and lost like a dummy.

As I’m writing this, I just found out that Wentz is not expected to play this week. Love this number even more, now.

9.  Arizona Cardinals (+9)at Atlanta Falcons

This line is stupid high for a four-win Falcons team that can’t a) score touchdowns or b) stop teams from scoring touchdowns. The Cardinals, because they’re bad, keep getting these big numbers thrown their way. I like Arizona in this spot simply because the Falcons have not shown the ability to compete since their three-game winning streak in late October/Early November. The Falcons should win this one, but nine is a very big number for the dirty birds.

Gun-to-my-head picks:

Gun-to-my-head season record: 48-52-2

Houston Texans at New York Jets (+6)*

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8)at Baltimore Ravens

Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5)

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

New Orleans Saints (-6.5)at Carolina Panthers

*If this line gets to 7, I’m taking the Jets #HomeDawgs

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{Header Image from CBS Boston}

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