I apologize for a little more vanilla post this week. I didn’t have as much time as normal , but I still have this week’s picks and some of my mediocre analysis below.
Last week I went 7-2-1, in a week where the sportsbooks pummeled public bettors. Looking to stay hot, I like several games again this week.
Week 11 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed from most to least confident. However, I must note that I won’t be finalizing most of the picks on my end until Sunday morning (unless I really feel good about the number I’m seeing, which does happen from time to time). For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread.
Season Record: 49-29-2
Season Point Differential: +197
Bye Weeks: Buffalo, Miami, New England, NY Jets, Cleveland, San Francisco
Last Week: 7-2-1
- Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
You have to like Russell Wilson as a short home favorite, even against Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are beat up and both teams are desperate for a win. I think this number is a tad off, as I believe the home team should be able to come out on top by at least a field.
- Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
I bet on this game almost immediately, and the line jumped two whole points once the game moved to Los Angeles (originally scheduled for Mexico City).
I believe that the Rams are the better team up front and while both defenses are suspect, the Rams to me have a distinct advantage in many aspects. Despite all of the talk about Marcus Peters, I find it hard to believe that he will be relevant against the type of offense in Kansas City.
- Tennessee Titans (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
This line was probably the funkiest on the board, and the bets agree with me. Already the line has dropped to two points. The Titans have been impressive the past few weeks, and have a major edge on the defensive side of the ball. If they can contain Andrew Luck and co., they should win this game outright and handily.
- Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
This line is out of whack. A week ago, Atlanta would probably have been favored by 5 or 6 points following their respective performances. That, along with Atlanta’s homefield advantage, is enough for me to place a nice wager on this game.
- Houston Texans (-2.5) at Washington Redskins
This isn’t a normal bet for me. I usually end up on the side of the home dawg, especially in the case of these Redskins. I like Houston, coming off a bye, against a beat-up Washington team that has failed to cover at home many times already this season. If Houston is able to feasibly protect Deshaun Watson, they should be able to handle the Redskins.
- Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Chicago Bears
The Bears have been dragging bad football teams through the mud in recent weeks. The Vikings, coming off a bye, are not getting enough respect in this division matchup. As much as I’ve enjoyed betting on the Bears this season, I like getting three points in a game I could easily see going the other way.
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
This line is too low. I hate my team and the bye week means almost nothing to me. The Chargers sleepwalked their way through an easy cover in Oakland last week. Melvin Gordon has also reached full health and they could potentially have Joey Bosa back this week.
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6)
Pittsburgh has been incredible of late. I had some trouble figuring this game out, but I felt I had to hold my nose and bet the home dawg. Jacksonville has historically handled Pittsburgh well in the Tomlin era, and six is just too many points. I should note that last week I bet a few home dawgs last week based on the number, and looked super duper dumb (Bengals, yuck) but also pretty sharp (Browns, yay).
Gun-to-my-head season record: 32-34-2
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) at New York Giants
Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles (+9) at New Orleans Saints