BarnBurner contributor Josh North’s weekly NFL pick-em continues.
We’re now nine weeks into the NFL season, and several things have played out as they often do. The Browns are terrible, the Patriots are good, and we are still seeing Dallas Cowboy fans complain mercilessly about their notorious owner/head coach combo.
But, as one would expect, we’re seeing a lot of things many people did not expect going into this season. For the sake of transparency, I decided to put together a mini mid-season report to shed some light on some of my numbers thus far.
Below you’ll find a breakdown of my weekly records. Notice that after a red-hot start, I’ve cooled down some, only picking 51% between weeks 5 and 8. Thankfully, I rebounded some last week. I should also note that the betting public has rebounded nicely after a VERY rough start to the season. Underdogs still have the edge overall, however, as they lead 69-60-2 on the season thus far. Home dawgs, beloved regulars of Pick-Up Lines, have experienced regression, but still lead 25-19 (56.8%) on the season.
Week 9: 4-2
Week 8: 4-4
Week 7: 3-5
Week 6: 5-3
Week 5: 3-2-1
Week 4: 6-3
Week 3: 8-1
Week 2: 3-5
Week 1: 6-2
Below are my best & worst records betting for/against certain teams. It’ll be no surprise that the team I am most familiar with, my Denver Broncos, are on top of this list. I knew that I had a good feel for this team going in, and it shows with a 4-0 betting record in Denver games. The below numbers will also show you who I’m betting on/against the most, among other things. I didn’t post many of the 0-1, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1 records with other teams for obvious reasons (que the small sample size song).
Broncos and Bears (4-0)
Patriots and Chiefs (4-1)
Texans and Redskins (3-1)
Eagles and Rams (2-3)
I don’t like the idea of basing my bets on anything but the number, but these results usually help tell me that I’ve got the wrong read on a certain team and that I should probably do more research before locking in such bets. For example, I’ve reevaluated the Steelers time and time again this season. The Giants, meanwhile, are completely hopeless and I’m going try to fade them at all costs.
That’s all you get. Now we’re moving forward. I’m taking a bit of a left turn this week, betting on road dogs and a couple of significant favorites, but I’m also betting on ten (10) games this week in honor of the 10th week of the 2018 NFL season.
Week 10 Picks:
As always, my picks will be listed from most to least confident. However, I must note that I won’t be finalizing most of the picks on my end until Sunday morning (unless I really feel good about the number I’m seeing, which does happen from time to time). For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread.
Season Record: 42-27-1
Season Point Differential: +122.5
Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Minnesota
Last Week: 4-2
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
I’m on the public side of this one. Nobody, and I mean nobody, likes the Cowboys this week. The Eagles are coming off a bye and the Cowboys are coming off a short week. This line should be 7 and while it’s not necessarily a ton of value, the Eagles are undervalued enough for me to be on their side. This is line is only going to move higher, so if you’re on the Philadelphia side, you should bet ASAP.
- Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
This line opened at 6, and, much to my surprise, has continued to fall. I locked it in at 3 on Thursday morning, as I don’t see this number going down any further. I haven’t had much of a read on this Pittsburgh team this season, but I have a strong feeling that this line is being moved more to compensate for public action than to reflect Carolina or Pittsburgh’s respective performances on the field at this point.
- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
This line should be seven, in my opinion. The Bears are getting a few key players back this weekend, and Detroit isn’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. I like the Bears here, despite the high number.
- Seattle Seahawks (+10) at Los Angeles Rams
I could only imagine what this line would be if Los Angeles was able to defeat the Saints last week. Double-digit underdogs are too good to pass up, and I think Seattle is a little better than their result last week would indicate (losing at home rather handily to the Chargers). Seattle competed at home against Los Angeles as 7-point underdogs earlier this season, I expect them to keep it close again.
- Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Redskins have gone through some significant injuries of late, but I was shocked to find them as three-point underdogs against a poopy poop Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers have been surprisingly competitive this season, but I believe Washington’s defense is the main reason for their solid start. I expect Alex Smith to keep the football out of Tampa Bay’s hands despite being shorthanded on protection/weapons.
- New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+6)
This pick will irritate one of my good buddies, who is ironically a Bengals fan, as he told me late Sunday night to fade his Bungals at all costs.
With the Saints coming off a huge win at home over the since defeated Los Angeles Rams, this is the perfect spot to bet the Bengals. Everyone and their mother (about 84% of the bets as of Wednesday morning) is betting on the Saints. Maybe the public is right here, but I’m expecting a close game. And there’s a chance this number approaches 6.5 or 7 before kick-off. If you’re betting on the Bengals, wait and see what happens. I like this number at 6 or above.
- Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
The Falcons are back! Everything is right for the dirty birds after a nice win in Washington last week. Regardless, I love the Browns here as a home dawg. The Falcons defense is still rough, and the Browns have been competitive at home aside from their run-ins with AFC West juggernauts. This line is too high (should be 3) and I believe that I’m getting some nice value.
- Buffalo Bills (+8) at New York Jets
Sam Darnold is out! But, if I’m being honest, I bet on this game well in advance of this news. The Bills are awful, everyone knows this, but this line is just silly. While the Jets have put together a few solid performances at home, they should not be favored by eight points over anyone. Circle the (gulp) wagons!
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
Leonard Fournette is back! But if I’m being honest, I bet on this game well in advance of his return. Both teams are coming off of a bye, and the Colts are at home, but I’m not sure the Colts are better than Jacksonville and I like getting a field goal.
- Arizona Cardinals (+17) at Kansas City Chiefs
This is just one of those games you hold your nose and bet. The Chiefs have been killing everyone (undefeated ATS this season) and the Cardinals have arguably the worst offense in the sport.
The Cardinals are also coming off a bye (and a win). The Buffalo Bills were once 17-point underdogs in Minnesota earlier this season, and if you recall Buffalo won that game in a stunning upset. I’m not saying Arizona is winning this game, but I just need them to have enough dignity to lose by two touchdowns. I should note I’m 3-2 in Arizona games this season, which means absolutely nothing.
Gun-to-my-head season record: 31-31-2
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
Miami Dolphins (+10) at Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10)
New York Giants (+3) at San Francisco 49ers*
*insert poop emoji*
Check out Josh’s other NFL picks HERE only on The BarnBurner.