Literally in the last few minutes before kick-off Monday night, I held my nose and bet Buffalo +14. When Buffalo was down 12-6 in the 4th quarter, my cocky ass was riding high and made sure everyone knew that I made my bet and was looking to win it.
UPDATE: 4-3 week followed up with a late snag of Bills +14. Circle the damn wagons pic.twitter.com/6PZUsqNk7f
— Josh North (@JCNorth_) October 30, 2018
Needless to say, that was my most hurtful loss of the season, bringing my record down to 4-4 last week.
Thankfully, despite my recent .500 play, I still feel very strongly about my performance this season, with so many public bettors struggling to get anything done every week.
Scroll down for the picks.
Week 9 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed from most to least confident. However, I must note that I won’t be finalizing most of the picks on my end until Sunday morning (unless I really feel good about the number I’m seeing, which does happen from time to time). For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread.
Season Record: 38-25-1
Season Point Differential: +124.5
Bye Weeks: Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Week: 4-4
- Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
This number opened at 7, and it seems to be going down to balance out some of the large money that came in early on the Packers.
The Patriots play by different rules than many of the other teams. The Packers are coming off of a brutal loss to Los Angeles last week, but New England has a greater home-field advantage than just about any team in the NFL. They have consistently been the exception to the rule when it comes to home dawgs and short home favorites. For the Patriots, 5.5 damn near qualifies as a short home spread.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
The public, unsurprisingly, is all over the Steelers as a road dawg, with over 80% of the money coming in on Pittsburgh.
I know what you’re thinking, especially if you bet on Baltimore with me the past two weeks, but the Ravens are undervalued here. This line should be closer to 4.5 or 5. Keep in mind, Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh pretty handily earlier in the season. There’s definitely a lot of “This is a new Pittsburgh team” propaganda floating around, but I’m back on the Baltimore train.
3. Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Again, I’m pretty shocked by this line. I know the Falcons have an extra week to prepare, but Washington, despite less than mediocre play from quarterback Alex Smith, has proven to be much better than many expected this season. Washington, winners of three straight, have a much better defense than Atlanta and I like getting essentially a pick-em this week for the home team. I’m on Washington, again, at least until they stop covering for me as short home favorites.
4. Houston Texans (+2.5) at Denver Broncos
This line moved in the Denver direction after wide receiver Demaryius Thomas switched sides on Tuesday. As a Denver fan, it’s hard for someone to convince me that he’s worth an extra 1.5 points. As a gambler, it’s hard to convince me that any skill player is worth that many points on a spread.
While I’m sure the Thomas deal wasn’t the only factor, the Texans should be favored in this game. If it were in Houston, I’m almost certain the Texans would be favored by 5 or 6 points. I don’t think Denver’s home-field advantage (this season) is worth 8.5 points the other way. I like Houston to win this one.
5. Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
The Vikings let me down last week. It hurt. I was upset and I cried a little.
This week, they are at home once again against another team that let me down last week in Detroit. The lions were three-point favorites at home against the Seahawks last week and got murder stomped. That too, was miserable.
The Vikings are favored by five in many sports books as I’m writing this, but I think this game is going to be a blood bath. Detroit has yet to cover on the road. The Vikings have the homefield advantage, turnover differential, and DVOA. I like the underachieving Vikings to cover a relatively short spread at home (I think this number should be six).
6. Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-1)
This arguably the biggest game of the year, with both teams vying for home-field advantage in their respective conferences. Many of you may point to the Rams-Chiefs game in Mexico City, but that game only means so much despite its appeal.
The Saints have been just as dominant as Los Angeles since their Week 1 loss to Fitzmagic. I feel good about this bet and I feel the line should be higher. It’s at 2 in some sportsbooks, but it’s fluctuated enough that I would suggest waiting until kick-off to see if any action comes in on Los Angeles.
Gun-to-my-head season record: 27-28-2
Oakland Raiders (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10)
Los Angeles Chargers (+2) at Seattle Seahawks
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys*
*looking hard at this game
Banner Image: Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat