At this point in the season, we have enough of a sample size to make some judgments on certain teams and betting trends. We also have enough to predict some form of regression from the same. Some of my thoughts so far as I continue to do my best not to lead you astray, unlike some people.
- Teams that I’ve bet on so far that I’m likely to fade (I think) for the rest of the season: Colts, Giants, Jaguars and (maybe) the Cowboys.
You’ve seen me bet on the Colts almost every week, as I started 3-0 in Andrew Luck games. These last three weeks, however, I’ve seen them get trounced ATS, going 0-3. During that run, I’ve bet on them twice, and watched some heartbreaking and down-right puzzling losses against Houston and New York. I’m going to take a break from them, mostly because I’m upset, as well as the Giants, Jaguars and (maybe) Cowboys. These teams puzzle me and I’m finding it hard to believe that their lines are going to see much correction due to the public’s love for favorites and bad gambling, at least for the next few weeks.
In addition, I’d like to note that I’ve bet on the Cardinals the past three weeks (3-0 ATS) but I’m not sure how much longer this will last. I’ll keep betting on them until I see some line correction, but I have a feeling it will come AFTER this week (spoilers).
- Some teams that I’m looking to bet on or continue to bet on/against, moving forward: Chargers, Bears, Patriots, Redskins.
The Chargers are starting to hit their stride after losses to the Rams and Chiefs (who look like absolute juggernauts right now), and I believe this team could easily finish with a nice record ATS with their schedule. At the same time, a hot team like this is always due for some overreaction theatre . I’m going to keep my eye on L.A. moving forward. The Bears, meanwhile, are getting lines that should belong to a team that’s going to finish 10-6 or 11-5. I’m less than convinced, as I believe this team is playing closer to a .500 team with a limited offense and a defense that seems susceptible to the pass. I love betting against the public, and the Bears have a huge public following as always.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are still undervalued in the sports book. They should still win their division handily and you would be foolish to think Touchdown Tommy Brady and Co. can’t finish this season 12-4 or 13-3, covering spreads at alarming rate as they often do. They got hooked last week, but I feel good about their future.
- Home dogs continue to rule the day, now at a stunning 20-8 (71.4%) on the season. As a regular home dog bettor, this makes me very happy and a little richer. If this continues, I might be able to pay rent on time. However, these numbers are not likely to hold. Home dogs usually produce somewhere between 54 and 60 percent winners (still good). I’m going to keep betting home dogs, but might be taking a few extra looks before doing so. Underdogs as a whole are winning at a 56% clip.
Now, onto the picks.
Week 7 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed from most to least confident. However, I must note that I won’t be finalizing most of the picks on my end until Sunday morning (unless I really feel good about the number I’m seeing, which does happen from time to time). For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread.
Season Record: 31-16-1
Season Point Differential: +163.5
Bye Weeks: Green Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle
Last Week: 5-3
- New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2)
There’s a lot of “extra week to prepare” propaganda floating out there in the media stratosphere. I don’t believe in that poppycock, but I do believe in short home favorites.
I hate the Ravens and they’re a bunch of jerks, but they’re tough. I feel very good about taking the short home favorite. This might be the most value you’ll get on Baltimore all season.
- Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1)
I love this line. The Cowboys have been in an enigma all season long. The Redskins, likewise, have had their moments of inconsistency. I believe that is all behind us, and so do the sharp bettors. This line has climbed up to 2.5 and I expect that it will hit 3 by game-time. I believe in Washington under a field goal. I would personally lock this in before Sunday morning, but I’ve misread the lines before.
- Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
So far, the public is on the Broncos at a 3-to-1 ratio. As a Broncos fan, that is absolutely ludicrous. This, in large part, has to do with Denver playing their best game of the year against the Rams and the Cardinals getting beat by double digits in Minnesota last week. However, the Cardinals have covered four weeks in a row since their beat down at the hands of the aforementioned Rams in Week 2. I’m on the home dog and I’m on Cardinals money line.
- New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
I jumped on this early, upset and grumpy after watching the Giants screw me over last Thursday night. The Falcons defense is atrocious, and I could see the New York skill players having a field day, but this line is already at 6. Maybe it is public money pushing this line, but Atlanta is clearly the better team and their homefield advantage is more than enough for me to bet on Matt Ryan and Co. this week.
- New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears
As noted earlier, I’m not buying Chicago as a playoff lock just yet. The Patriots, meanwhile, appear to be back after a brief slumber through Week 3. I don’t like road favorites, as you’ve seen me get pummeled when I bet road favorites in the past, and this is going slightly against my principles. I’ll place my faith in Touchdown Tommy and I look forward to losing all of my doll hairs as another home dog comes out on top. If you are seeing 3.5 on your sports book, I would probably stay away.
In addition, I’d like to note that there is an angle to middle this game if you locked in 49ers +11. I might also bet Rams -9.5, hoping for a 10-point victory.
- Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Also noted earlier, I believe the Chargers are ready to make a jump. Despite playing on a neutral field and London games being as unpredictable as they come, I’m taking the large favorite here. The Titans showed me absolutely nothing last week at home against Baltimore, and they appear to be on their way to a mediocre season. I expect the Chargers to put this game away by halftime.
- Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+11)
I locked this game in Monday night prior to their heartbreaking loss to the Packers. I’m placing my faith in CJ Beathard, which is horrifying, but the line is already down to 9.5. The Rams have performed very well to-date, but this is their third road game in a row, and they have failed to cover on the road the last two weeks in Seattle and Denver.
Gun-to-my-head season record: 24-20-1
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3)
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (+1)
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans (+4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)