I have no idea why I’ve been betting so many games this season. My budget hasn’t changed and even coming off a losing week, I decided to bet on nine games (and those are just the games you saw). The last time I bet nine games in one week? 2015. I’m reaching a new level of degeneracy here in my mid 20’s.
Some early trends/nuggets for you, courtesy of Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas A great follow for those who are serious about gambling):
- Underdogs are 27-18-1 ATS (60%) so far this season. From my point of view, that’s rather common through Week 3. It’s not until we see line correction later in the year where the favorites start to flip the script. In this light, I’m hoping the dogs come in strong again this week.
- Last week, we saw seven outright underdog upsets, including the Buffalo Bills who were 17‑point underdogs. Just goes to show you that there is significant value to be had when betting large underdogs.
- Over/Unders this season? 24-24. Don’t bet point totals. You’d be wasting your time and money.
Last week, we went 8-1, including my underdogs finishing 5-1 and short home favorites going 3-0. I’m hoping to continue that trend this week, as I’m betting on six more underdogs and three short home favorites.
Week 4 Picks
As always, my picks will be listed from most to least confident. However, I must note that I won’t be finalizing most of the picks on my end until Sunday morning (unless I really feel good about the number I’m seeing, which does happen from time to time). You’ll probably sense a trend in my picks early on, but with the lines being as they are, I’ve been forced to bet on some bad football teams. For reference, I will have the team I’m picking in bold font next to the point spread.
Season Record: 17-8
Season Point Differential: +149
Bye Weeks: Panthers, Redskins.
Last Week: 8-1
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
I didn’t have the balls last week to take Arizona +5.5 against Chicago. Well, I’m looking back to Phoenix to finish the job.
Seattle is up to their old tricks again, making the public believe that they’re a competitive team on the road that should be favored against middling teams who bench their starter in the fourth quarter for a rookie quarterback who apparently has an entire community behind him.
As much as I want to bet against Josh Rosen, the Cardinals are a significant home dog against a team that we have zero evidence of ever being able to win on the road. As competitive as Seattle was against Denver and Chicago, there was never a point where I thought they had a chance to win those games. I like the Cardinals here, maybe even to win outright.
2. Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have owned me this season. The last two weeks, I’ve bet against them as significant favorites and now we have the Vikings, who just got roffle stomped by the friendly neighborhood Buffalo Bills.
My thinking: the Vikings are still a team that could make a run at the Super Bowl and the Rams haven’t particularly beaten a team of their caliber yet. I like getting seven points, and I’m hoping (praying) that the Rams regress just a little bit after an impressive three weeks. Kirk “The Jerk” Cousins better not let me down.
3. Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
I’ve bet against the Cowboys three weeks in a row, going 2-1 in those games. Despite watching two of those games, I still have no idea what to make of this team.
Enter the Detroit Lions, who just beat down Touchdown Tommy Brady on national television. You would think that we should bet Detroit (or probably fade this game…) right?
Wrong! I’ll take the short home favorite despite the missing Sean Lee. I feel good about Dallas’s chances in covering. Detroit has always been significantly better at home in the Matthew Stafford era and Dallas’s one cover this season occurred at home against New York.
4. Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5)
Last week, I told you to bet against the Broncos despite them getting some real public action as road underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens. This week, they’re matching up with an even better team, but I believe that Kansas City is due for some significant regression. While Denver’s pass offense has left a lot to be desired thus far, I believe the Broncos as a home dog is the likely cover here.
Be warned, the last time I bet on Denver at home on Monday night, the New York Giants dragged them through the mud and I lost all of my doll hairs.
5. Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
The Colts are getting most of the action, indicating public influence, but Houston is getting most of the money, indicating that professional bettors are on the Texans. I don’t like being on this side, but Indianapolis was literally a few plays away from a 3-0 start, while Houston has looked putrid at best. I don’t mind placing money on a short home favorite with the better QB (and maybe better defense????).
6. Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
This line is too high for me. I’ve bet on Pittsburgh games every week, and this is the first time I’m betting against them. These games are traditionally close.
7. Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+4)
It’s my goal to bet on every Eagles game this season.
Seriously though, the lines have been funky for this team so far. It doesn’t appear that Vegas, or anyone else for that matter, can make up their mind on what this team is capable of. The Eagles are getting 70% of the action thus far, moving this line up a full point heading into Thursday. I like Tennessee as the home dog, even though the Eagles could still definitely win this game. Until I see their offense perform up to the level of last year’s juggernaut, I will continue to feast on public perception.
8. Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
The Browns, as they do every week it seems, are getting some real public love heading on the road after their first win since Christmas eve, 2016. The Baker Mayfield hype is real, but I’m not so sure the Browns should be getting this much respect just yet. So, what do I do? I bet on Jon Gruden and his moribund group of not-Khalil Mack’s.
I don’t know what to tell ya. I like this game, man.
9. Buffalo Bills (+10.5) at Green Bay Packers
It feels weird betting on the Bills twice in a row, especially asking them to cover in a similar situation two weeks in a row. But, I don’t think the Packers, with Aaron Rodgers playing on one leg and their team/fan base seemingly distracted by the officials every week, should be favored by double digits against anyone. I’ve already talked about how taking double-digit dogs has value, so don’t feel the need to re-hash that here. Circle the wagons!
Gun-to-my-head season record: 11-11-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3)
New York Jets (+7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7)
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5)
San Francisco 49ers (+10.5) at Los Angeles Chargers